Financial Modelling for Energy Transitions: MINFin, FinTrack & FinCoRE

File 1 contains an outline of the course, its learning objectives, duration, example assessment methods, and IT requirements. In File 2, an example timetable is provided that breaks the course into three different blocks. File 3 provides a comprehensive reading list with key publications highlighted.

Week 1 introduces the climate finance context, situating national financing challenges within the broader international landscape of climate commitments and flows. Students are introduced to MINFin, its structure, and intended purpose as a tool for analysing investment needs and financing gaps. The hands-on session guides students through downloading the model and navigating its interface, preparing them for deeper calibration exercises in later weeks.

Week 2 focuses on investment needs, emphasising how outputs from technical engineering models such as OSeMOSYS can be translated into investment terms for use in MINFin. The lecture introduces how to incorporate additional elements, such as stranded asset costs, to develop a comprehensive view of financing requirements. The hands-on session guides students in calibrating investment needs in MINFin to reflect both new investments and costs of terminating fossil fuel plants.

Week 3 introduces the financing baseline (volumes) by examining how different sources and modes of finance shape the affordability of energy transitions. The lecture covers the range of financing instruments available for infrastructure projects, explains the differences in financing terms typically associated with various institutions, and explores how blended finance from public and private actors can affect overall costs of capital. The hands-on session guides students in calibrating financing volumes in MINFin by analysing the historical costs of projects and identifying which institutions contributed what volume of finance.

Week 4 introduces FinTrack as a tool for analysing how climate and development funds are allocated and used at the country level. The lecture highlights why it is important for countries to track their actual use of funds against potential allocations, explains the criteria that shape the cost of capital from both fund and project perspectives, and explores the barriers projects often face in accessing concessional climate finance. The hands-on session guides students through downloading FinTrack and navigating its key features to map funding sources and assess access criteria.

Week 5 continues the financing baseline in MINFin by shifting focus from volumes to terms, exploring how the cost of capital shapes the affordability of energy transitions. The lecture examines the risk factors driving the cost of commercial debt and equity financing and explains how capital structures influence the overall affordability of infrastructure investments. The hands-on session enables students to calibrate financing terms in MINFin, using historical data on financing conditions to build realistic baseline assumptions.

Week 6 introduces FinCoRE, focusing on how financing costs for renewable energy projects are estimated and projected at the country level. The lecture explains the challenges of accessing reliable empirical data on the cost of capital, outlines the key risks that drive financing costs, and compares different estimation approaches used in academia and policymaking. Students are then introduced to the methodology behind FinCoRE and how it generates projections of renewable financing costs. The hands-on session guides students in accessing and applying FinCoRE outputs to inform analysis in combination with other models.

Week 7 focuses on the funding baseline, examining the domestic and international resources that can be mobilised to support the energy transition. The lecture introduces the five key components of the baseline, SOE cashflows, government expenditure, international grants, fossil fuel expenditure savings, and monetisation of carbon savings, and explains how these elements are projected over time. Students also explore how MINFin forecasts future SOE cashflows, the challenges of identifying clean energy spending in national budgets, and the broader role of public funds in enabling transitions. The hands-on session guides students in calibrating the funding baseline in MINFin.

Week 8 addresses the concept of the financing gap, focusing on the shortfall between investment needs and available funding baselines. The lecture introduces the two main approaches to closing a financing gap and outlines the range of measures that can be taken under each. The hands-on session enables students to design strategies for closing the gross financing gap in MINFin by selecting and combining different measures.

Week 9 focuses on the net financing gap, highlighting its significance in assessing whether climate finance needs can be met in practice. The lecture introduces the range of financing instruments used within MINFin to address this gap and explains how their contributions are quantified. The hands-on session guides students in calculating the scale of different instruments and analysing their impact on reducing the gross financing gap.